The property investor who makes decisions based on press headlines is always too late. News that prices are rising in an area appears when the rise has already been under way for 12-18 months. The investor who gets ahead uses primary data sources. Here are the ones that really work.
The data sources that matter
The INE's transaction statistics: Real sales data (not listings) from the INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Spain's national statistics office), published with a 2-3 month delay. They show the real volume of transactions by area, which anticipates the price trend.
Data from the Colegio de Registradores: Statistics from Spain's association of land registrars on registered mortgages and sales. More granular than the INE and updated quarterly.
Idealista's price index by postcode: Idealista's listings data are the most complete in the resale market. Its historical comparison tool lets you see the price trend in micro-areas.
Airbnb data (AirDNA): For investing in a VUT (vivienda de uso turístico, a licensed tourist let), AirDNA's data show real occupancy, the nightly rate and average income by municipality. Essential before buying for tourist letting.
The most reliable leading indicator: search activity
The volume of searches on property portals by area is a leading indicator of prices. When searches in an area grow by 30-40% year on year, prices tend to rise 6-12 months later. Idealista publishes quarterly data on demand by area that let you exploit this pattern.
How not to get lost in the data
The risk of having access to a lot of data is analysis paralysis. The efficient process: (1) identify areas of interest, (2) validate them with 2-3 data sources, (3) visit the area in person, (4) decide. Data are there to confirm or rule out hunches, not to replace judgement.
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